I ended up basically treading water last weekend overall, but pulled off a winning week in the NFL which I desperately needed.  With NBA and college basketball coming online, I've moved the picks blog to Fridays.  I sacrifice a chance to play the Thursday night college football games, but gain the opportunity to pick out of the big NBA card on Friday and the huge list of college basketball games on Saturday.  As always, read the disclaimers in the first blog (short version: don't do anything illegal), and then proceed with the rest of this weekend's edition. 

 

Blog Records:

 

College Basketball:  0-0

NBA:  2-3, -130 

MLB Playoffs:  5-3, +325

College Football:  11-10-1, +0

NFL:  2-5-1, -350

 

College Basketball

 

     It's the most wonderful time of the year!  My favorite sport is gearing up for another season, with the first big slate of games tipping off tonight.  Look for my ACC hoops preview article hitting the site on Saturday.  Usually, the big card would be on Saturday, with only the Ivy League doing much on Friday night, but this week there are a ton of games on Friday.  Here are three small southern schools listed as underdogs tonight, who deserve more respect than what they are getting from Vegas:

 

James Madison +4

 

     Siena won this game rather easily at home last year in one of ESPN's Bracket Buster games.  This year, JMU gets to play in their gym and against a Siena team that lost some good players to graduation.  The better team is at home and getting points, which sounds like a good play to me.

 

UNC-Greensboro +17

 

     It's never easy to play against Georgia Tech in Atlanta, but I think UNC-G is a lot better than this line would indicate.  They are undersized, but the Yellow Jackets will be without two of its important big men tonight, Dickey (academics) and Peacock (injury), and look for box score stuffing forward Kyle Hines to have a big season opener for the visitors.

 

Elon +18

 

     Elon is not as good as UNC-G, also of the Southern Conference, but Virginia Tech is not as good as Georgia Tech this season either.  The Hokies lost three of their best players to graduation last season in Dowdell, Gordon, and Collins, and are pretty much in rebuilding mode this year - tonight's starting lineup is likely to feature two freshmen, including the point guard, who are playing in their first NCAA game.  Elon returns a lot of players with experience and should be able stay within this huge number tonight.

 

 

NBA

 

       The NBA is a tough sport to handicap since the effort level of most of the players seems to change on a daily basis.  That said, I usually do pretty well in the first weeks of the season at least.  On to the picks for Friday night:

 

Knicks -1 

 

     Along with the Bucks (3-1 against the spread) and Clippers (4-0 ATS), the Knicks (2-1 ATS) are one of the teams that the public, and therefore the bookmakers, are underestimating so far this season.  Sure, the organization is dysfunctional, but they can score a ton of points and run with anybody.  Dwight Howard is likely to have a big game, as usual, but in the Garden, I think the Magic get outgunned tonight.

 

Bucks +9

 

     Like I said above, people aren't noticing how much talent the Bucks are putting on the floor this season.  They're not going to make much noise in the playoffs this season, but all I need them to do is play better than expected tonight in the Chinese Super Bowl (Yao vs. Yi), and I think they will.

 

Grizzlies +2.5

 

     The Blazers are playing hard and I think this line reflects them getting too much credit for beating the road-weary Hornets the other night.  With Rudy Gay and Darko Milicic playing well, alongside the rest of a solid starting unit (Gasol, Miller, Stoudamire), this team can do some damage when their shots are falling.  The Grizzlies don't usually have a talent edge over another team, but they do tonight and should win this game straight up.

 

 

College Football

 

     Another .500 performance in college football last week.  Luckily, I've figured out a way to avoid that this week by giving an odd number of picks.  Unless there's a push in the last game listed, at least I won't break even again.  Here are the 5 that made the cut:

 

Indiana -2.5 

 

     There's just more talent on the roster for Indiana than for Northwestern this season.  Give me the better team needing only a field goal to win.

 

Michigan State +4.5 

           

     The Spartans seem to have a real knack for playing either up or down to the level of their opponents.  Perhaps that explains why they have already played five games this year where the scoring margin was four points or less at the end of regulation.  I see a similar finish Saturday against Purdue, who squeaked by Michigan State by only 2 points last year.

 

Louisiana Tech  +36.5

 

     Continuing my "LSU is a fraud" theme discussed in last week's blog, I'm going against them again and hoping their losing against the spread streak goes to 7 straight games.

 

Florida State +6.5

 

     Another common theme among my picks this season has been Virginia Tech's shoddy offense and picking against them where appropriate.  Last week, the Hokies came alive against Georgia Tech, but I still can't resist this many points in this situation.  If the Hokies cover again this week, I'll re-evaluate my position.

 

USC -4

 

     The preseason consensus #1 team has not lived up to the hype this season, but they are better across the board than Cal, especially defensively, and should take out some frustration this weekend on the Bears.

 

 

NFL

 

     Finally!  I had been in a real drought in the NFL picks lately, but finally got a winner last week as the Colts stayed within the number, even though they choked away the game in the 4th quarter.  Even if I lived somewhere with legal sports wagering, I don't think I would lay any hard-earned money in the NFL this week.  Nothing looks great to me this week (tempted to take the Cardinals in what looks like a huge trap, but I'll pass), but for the sake of the blog, I'm throwing two picks out there for Sunday:

 

Browns +10

 

     Yes, the Browns got beaten up pretty badly by the Steelers in Week 1, but with the Steelers having a short week and coming off an easy win over the Ravens which may have left them with a bit of overconfidence, I'll go the other way with double-digit points in my pocket.  Browns offense has really improved since the beginning of the season, and I'm thinking they should be able to stay within a touchdown in the rematch.

 

Falcons +4

 

     I'm not sure the Panthers have done anything to suggest they should be favored by more than a field goal against anybody outside of the Rams or Dolphins.  Neither Carr nor Vinny can get the ball to Steve Smith (trust me, he's on my fantasy team) and I just don't see them running away with this one, even at home against a lame team like the Falcons.