The Trade 

On draft day, the Boston Celtics sent Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West, and the #5 pick, which turned into Georgetown's Jeff Green but probably would have been Yi Jianlian if Boston kept the pick, to the Sonics in return for Ray Allen.  Almost immediately, the deal was jeered as another Ainge blunder.  Upon reflection, however, I have come to the conclusion that the Celtics are a better team after the trade than they were before.  I'm not saying the trade is without risk:  if Ray Allen gets hurt, or if Jeff Green (or Yi) becomes a superstar, the trade will be looked back upon as a failure.   

But, all personnel decisions have risk, whether the decision involves a trade, a draft, or a free agent signing.  NBA general managers are paid to make the tough, risky decisions, and the time for the Celtics to take a chance is now.  First, as mentioned above, Ainge doesn't have much time left to get this team in the playoffs before he is tossed out of his job.  He simply did not have the luxury of waiting 4 or 5 years to see if Yi can save the franchise; he must win now.  Second, let's face it, it can't get much worse in Boston, no matter how this move eventually turns out.  The team was a joke before the trade, and if the deal doesn't work out, they're still in the same place.  Delonte West is a nice young player, but you're probably never going to see him or Wally in a future All-Star game, so they won't be terribly missed even if Allen doesn't work out in Beantown.  Third, it has never been easier, and never will be easier, to get to the NBA Finals out of the Eastern Conference.  If Boston had continued to accumulate young players, a few years from now they would still be behind other Eastern teams pursuing the same strategy and doing a better job of it (e.g. Raptors, Magic), and at some point, the talent will start shifting back toward the Eastern Conference making it more difficult to break through to the Finals.   

Ray Got Game 

Ray Allen is star.  He has so much game that when Hollywood decided to make a movie called "He Got Game," they didn't even bother to try and find an actor for the lead role, they just gave it to Ray.  A lot has been made of Ray's age, as he will be 32 years old when next season starts. However, Allen just had his highest scoring season ever last year when he averaged 26.4 points per game.  He has also been a model of consistency, averaging between 21 points and 27 points per game every season for the last 9 seasons.  A career 40% 3-point shooter, Allen shows no signs losing his shooting touch.  Critics will point out that similar shooters (e.g. Allan Houston, Mark Price) have started to decline at Allen's age, but they conveniently fail to mention shooters who continued to shoot at a 40% pace into their mid-thirties.  Examples include Jeff Hornacek, who shot 48% from the 3-point line even in his final season at 36 years of age, Reggie Miller, who was still shooting over 40% at age 38, and even Glen Rice (often used as an example of age decline), who hit more than 40% of his threes at age 35.  Having just set his career-best scoring mark last year, I think it's a little ridiculous to claim that Ray is too old and on the decline.  Szczerbiak, for the record, is 30-years-old himself and nowhere near as good as Allen. 

The other concern most frequently cited is the fact that Ray just had surgeries on both ankles in April.  According to critics, there is now a question mark as to how he will play following the surgeries.  Of course, said critics don't bother to mention that the surgeries were not performed to repair any fractures or dislocations in his ankles, but rather to remove bone spurs from his ankles which were causing severe pain last season.  If he averages 26.4 points per game with the bone spurs, I can only imagine what he can do without them and pain-free.   

The Next Step 

If Ainge has any sense (unfortunately, a big IF), there is another trade coming soon.  One of the great things about the Ray Allen trade was that Ainge got it done without including Theo Ratliff's expiring contract, which is the Celtics' biggest trade asset.  A contract of more than $11.5 million which comes off the books next summer is extremely attractive to teams with salary cap problems, like the Phoenix Suns, who are way over the salary cap and can't afford to give Shawn Marion the contract extension he wants.  Boston should immediately offer Ratliff, Gerald Green, and Sebastian Telfair for Marion, one of the most under-appreciated forwards in the league.  On a team full of good players competing for minutes and numbers, Marion averaged 17.5 points and 9.8 rebounds per game last season.  Boston needs a frontcourt partner to play with Al Jefferson in the middle and Marion would be a perfect fit.   

Boston would give up the cap flexibility Ratliff's expiring contract would have given them next summer, but in making the Ray Allen deal, Boston has already decided to go for the ring now, and for the reasons I stated above, this is indeed their window of opportunity.  The Suns would have the opportunity to get under the cap, or close to it, within a year, they would get two players in Telfair and Green who are perfect for their run-and-gun style, and they would not have to worry about contract extensions for several years as all five of their top remaining players (Nash, Stoudemire, Barbosa, Bell, Diaw) are locked up through at least 2010.  If the Suns turned them down, the Celtics can still use those assets to acquire another big man elsewhere (Nene?).   

Next, the Celtics need to address the point guard position.  I like Gabe Pruitt and Rajon Rondo a lot, but they're not quite ready to run the show on their own.  The Celtics should run, not walk, to use part of their mid-level exception to sign Brevin Knight, who was just inexplicably waived by the Bobcats.  At a cost of only $1.5 million, Knight averaged 9.1 points and 6.6 assists (yes, 6.6 assists) per game last season for Charlotte.  Michael Jordan's bonehead move provides a great opportunity for the Celtics here.  If another team beats Boston to get Knight, there are other affordable veteran point guards available, like Steve Blake ($1.3M, 6.4 pts, 5.0 assists last year) or Chucky Atkins ($3M, 13.2 pts, 4.6 assists).  Making these moves successfully would leave the Celtics with the following roster next season: 

Depth Chart

PG:  B. Knight (9 pts, 6.6 ast in '06-07) 
        R. Rondo (6.4 pts, 3.8 ast, 3.7 reb)
        G. Pruitt (rookie)

SG:  R. Allen (26.4 pts, 4.1 ast, 4.5 reb) 
        T. Allen (11.5 pts, 1.7 ast, 3.8 reb) 

SF:  P. Pierce (25.0 pts, 5.9 reb, 4.1 ast) 
       R. Gomes (12.1 pts, 5.6 reb) 

PF:  S. Marion (17.5 pts, 9.8 reb)  
       G. Davis (rookie) 

C:  A. Jefferson (16.0 pts, 11.0 reb)  
      K. Perkins (4.5 pts, 5.2 reb, 1.3 blk) 

Is there any chance that team doesn't make it at least to the Eastern Conference finals this season?  I'm not talking about down the road, they would get there THIS year in the East.  Who's going to keep that team out of the conference finals?  Not a one-man team like Cleveland, and not a declining team like Miami, either.  Detroit would be the only real obstacle between this Celtics team and the NBA finals.  Defensive shortcomings would make it difficult for this team to win the championship over the Spurs or Suns, but Boston fans would finally feel like they had a chance again, and the much-maligned Ray Allen trade would have been a critical part of the process.  Say what you want about Danny Ainge - he got this one right, and the Celtics got game.