The Major League Baseball Divisional Series playoffs begin Wednesday, October 3, and this season seems as wide open as any in recent memory.  I'm going to start with the American League Divisional Series first, since we didn't know who the wildcard team in the National League was going to be until this morning. 

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees are favored pretty heavily by the boys in Vegas in this series, but it's hard to figure out why.  Games 1 and 5 will feature Chien-Ming Wang facing C.C. Sabathia in Cleveland.  An old gambler once told me, "Never play with Wang away from home."  At first, I thought he was just some crazy old pervert, but once I figured out what the heck he was talking about, I realized he was a genius.  Wang's ERA on the road has been more than a full point higher each of the last 3 seasons than his ERA in Yankee Stadium.  This season, the split was the most dramatic:  2.75 ERA at home vs. 4.91 on the road.  Clearly, he is more comfortable pitching at home, yet the way the schedule breaks down he would be on the road for two of the five games in this series, facing a Cy Young candidate in his home ballpark; not a recipe for success.

In Game 2, Andy Pettitte faces another Cy Young candidate in Fausto Carmona at Cleveland.  In my opinion, Game 2 is a toss-up.  Carmona has pitched better this year, but Pettitte obviously has the edge in experience.  Additionally, I think the Indians lineup is better equipped to handle right-handed pitchers than a lefty like Pettitte.  That said, if Carmona is his usual self and isn't affected by the pressure, he's awfully tough to beat.  Game 3 is another toss-up as the projected matchup will be Westbrook vs. Clemens in Yankee Stadium.  Clemens is the better pitcher, but he has been battling a hamstring injury lately.  Based on the way he's been pitching in recent weeks, I'll give the nod to Mussina in Game 4 facing Paul Byrd.

Prediction:  Indians in 5.  Yep, going with the underdog here.  I think Sabathia takes both Game 1 and Game 5 at home, leaving the Indians only needing to get one of the other three, probably because of a gem pitched by Carmona in Game 2 or a dud pitched by an ailing Clemens in Game 3.  If I lived in a jurisdiction where you could wager on sports (Que pasa, Costa Rica?), I would be all over the Indians at +160 for the series.  I don't, so I'm not.  Because that would be wrong.  Seriously.

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

This series is different from the other three divisional series in that there is a day off in between the first two games in Boston.  The result of this extra day is that these teams can shorten their rotations to just three starting pitchers, such that the Game 1 and 2 starters will have their normal four days of rest to start Games 4 and 5.  In the other series, Game 1 and 2 are played on back-to-back days and those teams will need a fourth pitcher to pitch Game 4.   Boston will go with Beckett, Dice-K, and Schilling, while the Angels counter with Lackey, Escobar, and Weaver.

This altered schedule is a big advantage for the Red Sox, because it keeps Tim Wakefield, who was horrendous over the last month, off the field.  The Angels batters have traditionally hit Wakefield very well and his record this season against Anaheim (I'm purposely not calling them by their ridiculous full name) was 1-1 with an ERA of 5.73.   If Wakefield had to pitch Game 4 in Anaheim against probable Angels 4^th starter Joe Saunders, the odds would clearly favor the Angels in that matchup.  Saunders was 2-0 in the two games he started against the Sox this season with an ERA of 3.46.  Manny Ramirez has no hits in 5 at-bats against Saunders and David Ortiz is only 2 out of 10 against him.  The Red Sox would have been favored in this series anyway, but the unique schedule in this series is a lucky break that virtually hands the series to Boston.

Prediction:  Red Sox in 4.   Angels have not hit well over the last month as they struggle through some injuries (Vlad, Matthews, etc.), while the Red Sox have been solid and Manny has returned from an injury just in time for the postseason.  As for pitching, I give the advantage to Beckett over Lackey in games 1 and 4, because the Red Sox hitters have owned Lackey, but the Angels hitters do not fare well against Beckett.  Game 2 could go either way, as both Escobar and Dice-K have been terrible over the last month.  On the flipside, the Red Sox hitters have not had much success against Escobar and nobody on the Angels roster has ever faced Matsuzaka, which would seem to give a unique pitcher like him an edge.  If you live in a jurisdiction that allows sports betting (I'm talking to you, Macau!), stay away from this one unless you're just going to flip a coin and take your chances.  Schilling should take care of business in Game 3 over Jered Weaver, as his experience and recent quality performances give him the edge.  The Red Sox also boast the better bullpen in this series, so if the starters can turn it over to them with a lead, consider it game over and Boston marches on to face the Indians for the pennant.

On to the National League >>

Now that we actually know which four teams will be participating in the National League Divisional Series, we can try and figure out which two teams will advance to the League Championship Series.

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies

It goes without saying that if you're going to write a "playoff preview," it's probably important that the article hit the web before the playoff games start.  Unfortunately, since the Phillies' opponent in this series was just determined in the wee hours of Tuesday morning and the first pitch of Game 1 is scheduled 3 PM EST Wednesday afternoon, there's not a lot of time for in-depth analysis.  Making things even more difficult, the Rockies have not decided what their pitching rotation is going to look like yet.  With that in mind, I'm going to give a shot based on an educated guess as to the pitching match-ups.  Having a couple more days with which to work, the Phillies have already announced their rotation for this series.  Young stud Cole Hamels will start Games 1 and 5, Kyle Kendrick gets the ball for Game 2, and veterans Moyer and Lohse will pitch Games 3 and 4, respectively.  And yes, you may have noticed that Adam Eaton is not on the list of starters for this series, despite the fact that he was paid over $7 million this season.  Nice job, Adam.  How about a refund? 

As for the Rockies, we know that lefty Jeff Francis will face Hamels in Game 1, but the rest is still a mystery.  Josh Fogg, who started the Monday Night Marathon game, would not be available until at least Game 3, and may not be called upon until Game 4 or 5.  If Fogg can't go in Game 3, the Rockies should go with youngsters Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez in Games 2 and 3.  These guys are young and untested, but I think they give the Rockies the best chance to win.  I've heard rumblings about Mark Redman starting Game 2.  Yes, that Mark Redman with the 7.62 ERA this season.  Experience is important, but starting a horrible pitcher just for the sake of experience makes no sense.

Prediction:  Phillies in 5.  Offensively, the Phillies are one of the few teams that can hang runs on the scoreboard like the Rockies.  Pitching-wise, this series looks a lot like the Indians-Yankees series to me.  By that, I mean that I think the Phillies' Game 1 ace, Hamels, is going to win Games 1 and 5 at home like Sabathia in Cleveland.  It's a shame because Jeff Francis has pitched really well this year, but I think he's stuck with two road games against a Phillies lineup that really has his number.  Like I said about Cleveland in the AL preview, that means that the Phillies only have to get one of the other three games to advance.  If the Rockies start Redman in Game 2, that's the third win right there with Kendrick winning that game for the Phillies.  Even if the Rockies come to their senses and start the youngsters, I think one of the veteran starters for Philadelphia will be able to do just enough to take either Game 3 or 4.  Of course, a poor performance by the shaky Philadelphia bullpen could hand the series over to Colorado even if the starters do their job.  Trying to pick the winner of this series makes my head hurt, and it's really too close to call with any great confidence, but if you put a gun to my head, I'm saying Phillies close it out at home in Game 5.  Either way, this series should be an exciting one, featuring two teams who mounted furious winning streaks at the end of the season (Rockies won 14 of 15, Phillies 13 of 17) to make it to the playoffs while breaking the hearts of Mets and Padres fans everywhere.

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

At the beginning of the season, I don't think you would have found anybody predicting that the D-Backs would finish the season with the National League's best record.  Even in the Phoenix area, I don't think anybody saw this coming with such a young, unproven lineup.  And still, even with the benefit of hindsight, the 90-72 Diamondbacks have been installed as underdogs against the 85-77 Cubs, even though Arizona won 4 of the 6 games between the teams this season.  With the best record comes homefield advantage for the Diamondbacks, but because the Cubs have long held spring training in Arizona, there will be a ton of Cubs fans in the seats for the games in Phoenix.

Neither one of these teams should be confused with a big hitting team like the Rockies or the Phillies, so this series, like most playoff series, will be decided by the quality of the pitching performances.  The Cubs rotation will be Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Rich Hill, and Jason Marquis, while the Diamondbacks will go to battle with Brandon Webb, Doug Davis, Livan Hernandez, and Micah Owings.  As is usually the case, the biggest duel will take place in Games 1 and 5 when Big Z faces Webb in Arizona.  I may look foolish in a couple of days for saying this, but I'm going with Zambrano in Game 1.  I'm expecting a big game from both pitchers, but the Arizona offense is so anemic (.250 batting average for the season), especially with Orlando Hudson and Chad Tracy out with injuries, I think the Cubs pull out a low scoring affair, probably 1-0 after an Alfonso Soriano leadoff home run in the first inning.  If Zambrano, who pitched much better on the road this year than he did at Wrigley Field, starts giving out walks and then breaking the bat over his head every time he strikes out at the plate, I will deny ever making that prediction.  As long as I don't put it down in writing anywhere, nobody can prove otherwise.  Wait, what?  This is going to posted where?

Prediction:  Cubs in 3.   That's right, bring out the brooms.  I'm calling for the #1 seed in the National League to get swept out of the playoffs in the first round.  If the Cubs can get past Webb in Game 1, I think it's over.  A rejuvenated Ted Lilly will outgun mediocre Doug Davis in Game 2, and then the Cubs, behind young lefty Rich Hill, will pound Livan Hernandez in Game 3.  I don't care if Elton John did write a song about him, Hernandez is awful.  If the best thing you can ever say about a starting pitcher is that he's an "innings-eater," you can't feel too confident about riding that guy in an important playoff game.  If Webb and the Diamondbacks win Game 1, then we are all in for a doozy of a Game 5 in the Zambrano-Webb rematch in Arizona, because Micah Owings should be able to get past Marquis in Game 4, which could be the first game in history where the pitchers drive in all the runs in the game.  I'd have to look that one up in the record book, but Owings and Marquis are both very good at the plate, and I give the pitching edge to Micah.  In that scenario, the series could go either way, but I'm going with the dramatic prediction of the sweep.  At least until tomorrow........