The Major League Baseball Divisional Series playoffs begin Wednesday, October 3, and this season seems as wide open as any in recent memory.  I'm going to start with the American League Divisional Series first, since we didn't know who the wildcard team in the National League was going to be until this morning. 

 

Cleveland Indians vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees are favored pretty heavily by the boys in Vegas in this series, but it's hard to figure out why.  Games 1 and 5 will feature Chien-Ming Wang facing C.C. Sabathia in Cleveland.  An old gambler once told me, "Never play with Wang away from home."  At first, I thought he was just some crazy old pervert, but once I figured out what the heck he was talking about, I realized he was a genius.  Wang's ERA on the road has been more than a full point higher each of the last 3 seasons than his ERA in Yankee Stadium.  This season, the split was the most dramatic:  2.75 ERA at home vs. 4.91 on the road.  Clearly, he is more comfortable pitching at home, yet the way the schedule breaks down he would be on the road for two of the five games in this series, facing a Cy Young candidate in his home ballpark; not a recipe for success.


In Game 2, Andy Pettitte faces another Cy Young candidate in Fausto Carmona at Cleveland.  In my opinion, Game 2 is a toss-up.  Carmona has pitched better this year, but Pettitte obviously has the edge in experience.  Additionally, I think the Indians lineup is better equipped to handle right-handed pitchers than a lefty like Pettitte.  That said, if Carmona is his usual self and isn't affected by the pressure, he's awfully tough to beat.  Game 3 is another toss-up as the projected matchup will be Westbrook vs. Clemens in Yankee Stadium.  Clemens is the better pitcher, but he has been battling a hamstring injury lately.  Based on the way he's been pitching in recent weeks, I'll give the nod to Mussina in Game 4 facing Paul Byrd.


Prediction:  Indians in 5.  Yep, going with the underdog here.  I think Sabathia takes both Game 1 and Game 5 at home, leaving the Indians only needing to get one of the other three, probably because of a gem pitched by Carmona in Game 2 or a dud pitched by an ailing Clemens in Game 3.  If I lived in a jurisdiction where you could wager on sports (Que pasa, Costa Rica?), I would be all over the Indians at +160 for the series.  I don't, so I'm not.  Because that would be wrong.  Seriously.

 

 

Anaheim Angels vs. Boston Red Sox

 

This series is different from the other three divisional series in that there is a day off in between the first two games in Boston.  The result of this extra day is that these teams can shorten their rotations to just three starting pitchers, such that the Game 1 and 2 starters will have their normal four days of rest to start Games 4 and 5.  In the other series, Game 1 and 2 are played on back-to-back days and those teams will need a fourth pitcher to pitch Game 4.   Boston will go with Beckett, Dice-K, and Schilling, while the Angels counter with Lackey, Escobar, and Weaver.


This altered schedule is a big advantage for the Red Sox, because it keeps Tim Wakefield, who was horrendous over the last month, off the field.  The Angels batters have traditionally hit Wakefield very well and his record this season against Anaheim (I'm purposely not calling them by their ridiculous full name) was 1-1 with an ERA of 5.73.   If Wakefield had to pitch Game 4 in Anaheim against probable Angels 4th starter Joe Saunders, the odds would clearly favor the Angels in that matchup.  Saunders was 2-0 in the two games he started against the Sox this season with an ERA of 3.46.  Manny Ramirez has no hits in 5 at-bats against Saunders and David Ortiz is only 2 out of 10 against him.  The Red Sox would have been favored in this series anyway, but the unique schedule in this series is a lucky break that virtually hands the series to Boston.

 

Prediction:  Red Sox in 4.   Angels have not hit well over the last month as they struggle through some injuries (Vlad, Matthews, etc.), while the Red Sox have been solid and Manny has returned from an injury just in time for the postseason.  As for pitching, I give the advantage to Beckett over Lackey in games 1 and 4, because the Red Sox hitters have owned Lackey, but the Angels hitters do not fare well against Beckett.  Game 2 could go either way, as both Escobar and Dice-K have been terrible over the last month.  On the flipside, the Red Sox hitters have not had much success against Escobar and nobody on the Angels roster has ever faced Matsuzaka, which would seem to give a unique pitcher like him an edge.  If you live in a jurisdiction that allows sports betting (I'm talking to you, Macau!), stay away from this one unless you're just going to flip a coin and take your chances.  Schilling should take care of business in Game 3 over Jered Weaver, as his experience and recent quality performances give him the edge.  The Red Sox also boast the better bullpen in this series, so if the starters can turn it over to them with a lead, consider it game over and Boston marches on to face the Indians for the pennant.

On to the National League >>